Rigorous. Transparent.
Policy-Relevant.

Independent Computable General Equilibrium modelling for governments, international financial institutions, and the organisations that shape global policy. Grounded in data sourced from international organisations — not black-box assumptions.

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At a glance

35+
Years in CGE & macro policy
60+
Countries of engagement
50
Sectors covered
1
GAMS Training Partner
About

Peter Griffin & Griffin CGE Solutions

Peter Griffin has over 35 years of applied experience in Computable General Equilibrium modelling, delivering quantitative policy analysis for governments, international financial institutions, and private sector clients across more than 60 countries.

His work spans energy markets, trade policy, fiscal reform, climate and environmental policy, digital economy transformation, natural disasters, and macroeconomic adjustment — always built on data sourced from international organisations, subject to rigorous quality control and updated on a regular basis.

Griffin CGE Solutions is an independent economic consultancy based in Copenhagen, Denmark, globally active through a hub-and-spoke model with a trusted network of associate economists. The firm is built on a single conviction: transparent, institutionally grounded analysis is more credible and more useful than opaque, proprietary models.

Institutional clients
World Bank IMF Asian Development Bank European Union USAID AusAID DFID / FCDO PwC Middle East / Strategy&
What we do

A Complete CGE Modelling Practice

Six integrated service lines. Every engagement delivers rigorous, transparent analysis you can open, interrogate, and defend.

01

Standard CGE Models

Ready-to-use single-country and multi-regional CGE models built on data sourced from international organisations. Rapid deployment for time-sensitive policy questions.

02

Bespoke Model Development

Custom-built CGE frameworks tailored to client-specific policy questions — incorporating additional sectors, household groups, or financial market linkages.

03

Impact Assessments

Rigorous scenario analysis of trade shocks, energy disruptions, fiscal policy changes, and climate transition pathways — with full uncertainty quantification.

04

Training & Capacity Building

Structured programmes in CGE methodology — from introductory workshops to advanced GAMS implementation. Bespoke or open-cohort delivery. GAMS Training Partner.

05

Model Access & Licensing

Provision of model access, scenario tools, and ongoing analytical support for retained clients and policy units requiring regular modelling capability.

06

Expert Advisory

Senior advisory on CGE methodology, peer review of modelling work, model audit, and strategic economic analysis for senior decision-makers.

Methodology

CGE Models, Built for Decisions

Every engagement is anchored in a model that is transparent, well-documented, and genuinely owned by the client team.

From SAM to simulation

A CGE model is only as useful as the data that underpins it and the hands that operate it. Our engagements typically begin with a Social Accounting Matrix tailored to the policy question — sectoral detail where it matters, aggregation where it doesn't — and close with a fully documented model in client hands.

Standard architectures

We build on established, peer-reviewed specifications: Armington imports and CET exports for trade, Linear Expenditure System household demand, and nested CES production. Dynamics are recursive, with optional forward-looking extensions for investment and climate work.

GAMS as the standard

All models are delivered in GAMS with complete source code, calibration files, and user documentation. As an authorised GAMS Training Partner, we ensure client teams can maintain and extend the model long after handover.

Core capabilities

Recursive dynamic CGE
Multi-period projections with investment, capital accumulation, and debt dynamics.
Single-country open economy
Small-open-economy modelling with trade, balance of payments, and fiscal detail.
Social Accounting Matrices
Construction, balancing, and sectoral disaggregation from national accounts and survey data.
Legacy model migration
Converting older or abandoned models to current GAMS conventions and version control.
Climate & energy extensions
Carbon pricing, sectoral emissions accounting, and just-transition fiscal analysis.
Track record

Selected Project Experience

A representative selection from 60+ country engagements. All projects led directly by Peter Griffin, using transparent CGE models built on institutionally sourced data.

World Bank
2021–2025

Gaza Strip — Economic Disruption & Reconstruction

CGE modelling of conflict-driven economic disruption, reconstruction scenarios, and social impact across multiple phases of the Gaza crisis.

In-house research
Ongoing

GCC Energy Policy — Strait of Hormuz Scenarios

In-house CGE research modelling potential Strait of Hormuz disruption, oil price shocks, and green transition pathways across GCC economies. Illustrative of the firm's energy-security analytical capacity.

World Bank
2023–2024

Montenegro — Carbon Pricing & EU CBAM Alignment

CGE model of carbon pricing reform and EU CBAM alignment — distributional analysis across household deciles and sectors for EU accession policy.

Asian Development Bank
2021–2023

ADB Pacific — 14 Developing Member Countries

CGE framework spanning 14 Pacific DMCs — trade shocks, climate disasters, and fiscal simulations for small island economies.

World Bank
2021–2023

Saudi Arabia — Digital Economy & Vision 2030

CGE analysis of digitalisation shocks and structural transformation under Vision 2030 — labour market and fiscal sustainability implications.

World Bank
2016–2020

Lebanon — Energy Reform & Fiscal Stabilisation

Long-run CGE modelling of energy sector reform and fiscal stabilisation — household welfare and sectoral competitiveness in a crisis context.

Full project directory available on request — further country coverage includes Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, Zambia, Indonesia, Philippines, Nepal, WAEMU, and additional GCC and Pacific states.

Capacity building

CGE Training Series

GAMS Training Partner

A five-day core programme taking participants from microeconomic foundations through to a fully calibrated dynamic CGE model — with an optional two-day advanced module on multi-regional modelling. Available as open-enrolment courses or bespoke in-house programmes.

01

Household & Producer Behaviour 1 day

Microeconomic foundations: utility-maximising households, profit-maximising firms, market-clearing, Walras' Law, and closure rules. Concludes with a fully calibrated small-scale GAMS model.

02

IO Tables, SAMs & GAMS 1 day

From published Input-Output tables to a balanced Social Accounting Matrix. RAS/entropy reconciliation and GAMS fundamentals: sets, parameters, equations, and benchmark-consistent calibration.

03

Savings, Investment & Fiscal Policy 1 day

Direct taxes, VAT, excise and trade taxes. Alternative fiscal closure rules. Counterfactual simulations — tax reform, expenditure switching, transfers — with equivalent-variation welfare decompositions.

04

The Open Economy — Trade Policy 1 day

Armington imperfect substitution, CET export supply, balance-of-payments constraints, external closure. Tariff liberalisation, export subsidies, SPS measures, terms-of-trade shocks.

05

Recursive Dynamics & Reporting 1 day

Period-to-period capital accumulation, TFP and population growth paths, vintage labour. GAMS loop structures. Excel-linked output tables and presentation-ready charts.

06

Multi-Regional CGE Models 2 days · optional

Multi-regional architecture, Armington linkages, bilateral trade flows, inter-regional SAM compilation, GAMS implementation for large sparse systems. Applications: fiscal federalism, climate policy spillovers.

Why Griffin CGE Solutions

The Transparent Alternative

In a market crowded with proprietary, black-box models, Griffin CGE Solutions offers rigorous analysis that clients can open, interrogate, and defend.

Official, backward-traceable data

Every model input is drawn from official published statistics — World Bank, IMF, OECD, UN agencies, national accounts — with a clear audit trail back to source. Not outdated voluntary researcher submissions with opaque adjustments that frustrate comparison with official data and policy discussions.

60+ countries, up to 50 sectors

Among the most comprehensive multi-regional coverage available from any boutique provider — and every country built on the same transparent, officially sourced data foundation.

35+ years applied experience

Oil crises, COVID-19, trade disruptions — Peter Griffin has modelled them all, directly, on every engagement. Irreplaceable practitioner depth.

Anti-black-box philosophy

Every client receives full model documentation. You own the understanding — not just the output. Every result is traceable and auditable.

Agility & responsiveness

When a crisis breaks, you need analysis in days. Boutique speed with institutional-grade depth — no committee approval required to start work.

Energy & transition specialism

Deep expertise in energy markets, petrochemical supply chains, carbon pricing, and climate transition — where analytical demand is highest today.

Application domains

Where CGE Analysis Delivers Greatest Value

From energy shocks to trade wars to fiscal reform — CGE models quantify economy-wide impacts that no other method can capture at this scale.

Energy & Transition

Oil shocks, subsidy reform, energy security, green policy, just transition pathways

Trade Policy

Tariff analysis, FTAs, supply chain fragmentation, US–China trade tensions

Climate & Environment

Carbon pricing, EU CBAM, emission pathways, environmental fiscal policy

Fiscal Policy

Tax reform, public expenditure, debt sustainability, IMF-style adjustment

Industry Policy

Sectoral investment, industrial strategy, value chain analysis

Natural Disasters

Impact modelling, resilience assessment, reconstruction scenarios

Digital Economy

Digitalisation shocks, platform economy, structural transformation

Development Finance

Aid effectiveness, external financing shocks, programme evaluation

Target clients

Who We Serve

International Financial Institutions
IMF, World Bank, OECD, ADB, AfDB, IADB
National Governments & Ministries
Finance, energy, trade & environment ministries across OECD and emerging markets
European Union Institutions
European Commission (DG TAXUD, DG TRADE, DG CLIMA), ECB, EIB
Think Tanks & Research Institutes
National and international economic research institutes and policy think tanks
Private Sector & Energy Companies
Oil majors, utilities, commodity trading firms needing supply chain scenario analysis
Academic Institutions
Universities with applied economics programmes seeking training & collaboration
Get in touch

Contact

For consultancy enquiries, training programmes, or bespoke model development — we respond to all enquiries within two business days.

Direct contact

Email
PG@griffinCGE.com
Phone
+45 24 460 458
Location
Copenhagen, Denmark
(also Tbilisi, Georgia)
Website
www.GriffinCGE.com
LinkedIn
linkedin.com/in/petergriffininc
Languages
English, Danish

We respond to all enquiries within two business days.